The sowing campaign for the harvest-2021 has risen on the background of the devaluation of the ruble. According to the Ministry of agriculture on August 14, winter crops for the harvest-2021 planted on 155,5 thousand ha or 0.9% of the forecast area. This week on the start of the sowing campaign, in particular, reported Samara and Orenburg regions and Bashkortostan. In the near future will begin w...17 Aug 2020
Siberian Federal scientific center of agrobiotechnology (CPNCA), RAS will develop the concept of development of the grain market of Siberia until 2025, said in a statement on Friday, the message on the website SFNCE wounds. "By results of discussion the Council of the MASSES (the interregional Association "Siberian agreement") decided to approve the project proposal of the concept of the interreg...17 Aug 2020
As of 12 August in the presence of Russian farmers were 2.42 million tons of seeds of winter crops with the needs of 3.79 million tonnes. This was reported by the press service of "rosselhozcenter". The share of certified seed material as available at the reporting date was 98.6%, slightly higher than last year in this period (98,3%). It is reported that currently, 1.2% of the available seeds do ...17 Aug 2020
The price of cereals in the new season will depend on the volume and quality of raw materials. Gross harvest of major cereal species of agricultural crops this year will not be lower than that in 2019, the Director of the analytical Department of the Russian grain Union (RGU) Elena Tyurin. "The crop of oats will increase compared to the previous year by 2% to 4.5 million tonnes, the harvest of mi...17 Aug 2020
On 14 August the Minister of agriculture of the Russian Federation Dmitry Patrushev made a working trip to the Udmurt Republic. The main theme of the visit was the implementation of the state program "Complex development of rural territories", which was launched in 2020. In particular, the Minister called for a new culture House in the village of Sosnovka, where he held a meeting during which toge...17 Aug 2020
Vice-Premier of Victoria Abramchenko instructed the relevant ministries to study mechanisms to reduce the volatility of grain prices for manufacturers of flour. A copy of the order is at the disposal of TASS. "Ask you to study mechanisms to reduce the volatility of grain prices for manufacturers of flour and the results are to be reported to the government of the Russian Federation if needed, dra...14 Aug 2020
Foreign agricultural service of USDA (FAS USDA) increased the forecast of wheat harvest in Russia by 1.5 million tonnes to 78 million tonnes Estimation of gross yield of other cereals has been reduced from 40 million tons to 38.93 million tons, while projections for corn and barley remained unchanged: 15.3 million tons and 17.3 million tons of American analysts traditionally do not take into accou...14 Aug 2020
The Ministry of agriculture of the Russian Federation proposes the inclusion of complex mineral fertilizers in the list of goods the carriage of which the far East by railway transport at reduced rates kompensiruet from the budget. The corresponding document was published on the Federal portal of projects of normative legal acts. Earlier, in April last year, the Russian Government approved rules ...14 Aug 2020
During the reporting period the main buyer of Russian agricultural products was China. The export of agricultural products since the beginning of the year to 9 August amounted to $15.4 billion, which is 13% higher than a year earlier ($13.7 billion). While the supply of meat and dairy products reached $661 million (plus 64%), oil and fat $2,97 billion (+27%), products of food and processing ind...14 Aug 2020
In the period from 3 to 10 July, according to the monitoring of the National Union of grain producers of Russia, reducing demand for feed grains in the center of the country, the Volga region and the Urals combined with the growth in the South, which is focused on export. However, for many categories of crops prices for the week have not changed, reported IA "Svetich".
Study of the dynamics of grain prices with the help of the software "GrainMonitoring" showed that in the center of the country's crops reduced the cost, but grain corn has not changed in price.
In the South there was an increase in all classes of wheat and feed barley, and the demand for food rye and corn have stabilized. In the Volga region demand fell for wheat 3rd and 4th graders, food rye and fodder barley. Stabilized the price of wheat of the 5th grade and grain maize.
In the Urals Federal district increased the demand for wheat of the 3rd class, but decreased for wheat of 4-th and 5-th class, food rye and fodder barley. In Siberia grain of all categories of prices have not changed.
In the center of the wheat of the 3rd class fell by 250 rubles and was bought at a price from 11,500 to 15,500 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased by 1.82%, a week earlier - on 1,61%.
Wheat of the 4th class fell by 250 rubles, were bought at a price of 11 500 to 15 000 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased by 1.85% the week before - 1.46% .
Wheat 5 class-has risen by 350 rubles and was bought at a price of 10 000 to 14 500 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased by 2.78%, a week earlier increased by 1.2%.
Food rye fell by 750 rubles, bought at the price from 15 000 to 17200 roubles per tonne. Demand has decreased by 4.45%.
Feed barley fell by 200 rubles and was bought at a price of 8 600 to 12 000 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased 1.90 percent a week earlier - on 0,94%.
Corn for grain purchased in the interval from 9 to 13 700 300 rubles per ton. The demand in the previous week increased by 1.32% .
In the southern regions of the country and in the North Caucasus wheat of 3 class rose by 275 roubles, and purchased at a price of 11 400 to 14 300 rubles per ton. Demand has increased by 2.19%,a week earlier, declined by 2.14%.
Wheat of the 4th class rose by 350 roubles were bought at a price of 11 200-14 200 rubles per ton. Demand has increased by 2.83% the previous week fell by 3.14%.
Wheat 5 class-rose by 275 roubles, and purchased at a price of 11 000 to 13 850 rubles per ton. Demand increased by 2.26%, a week earlier, declined by 1.82%.
Feed barley rose by 25 roubles was bought for the price from 9 500 to 12 100 rubles per ton. Demand grew by 0.23%, the previous week has decreased on 0,69%.
Corn for grain purchased in the interval from 10 to 12 650 550 rubles per ton. Demand has not changed.
In the Volga region wheat of 3 class fell by 200 rubles and was purchased at a price of 11 800 14 300 rubles per ton. Demand was down 1.51 percent, a week earlier - on 2,57%.
Wheat of the 4th class fell by $ 100 and were bought at a price of 11 800 13 950 rubles per ton. The demand decreased by 0.77% in the previous week increased by 0.19% .
Wheat 5 class-is still purchased at a price of 9 900-13 800 rubles per ton. Demand has stabilized.
Food rye fell by 325 rubles and was bought at a price of 14 000 to 15 200 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased by 2.18% .
Feed barley prices dropped by 150 rubles and bought for the price from 9 500 to 11 300 rubles per ton. The demand has decreased by 1.42%.
Corn for grain purchased for the price from 9 500 to 11 800 rubles per ton. Demand has not changed.
In the Urals region wheat of 3 class rose to 250 rubles and was purchased at a price of 13 500 to 14 000 rubles per ton. Demand increased by 1.85%.
Wheat of the 4th class fell by $ 100 and were bought at a price from 12 300-13 500 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased on 0,77%.
Wheat 5 class-fell by 250 rubles and was purchased at a price from 12 300 to 14 500 rubles per ton. The demand decreased by 1.83%.
Food rye fell by 500 rubles and was purchased at a price of 12 000 to 15 000 rubles per ton. The demand has decreased by 3.57%.
Feed barley fell by 575 roubles and purchases in the range from 8 500 to 11 350 rubles per ton. Demand has decreased by 5.48%.
In Siberia, the wheat of the 3rd class is still purchased at a price of 13 000 to 14 000 rubles per ton. Demand a week earlier, fell by 1.81% .
Wheat of the 4th class are also purchased at a price of 12 000 to 13 000 rubles per ton. Demand a week earlier, fell to 2.72%.
Wheat 5 class-is still purchased at a price of 11 000до 12 000 rubles per ton. The demand in the previous week decreased by 2.75%.
Food rye as well bought at the price from 11500 to 14 250 rubles per tonne. Demand has not changed.
Feed barley, as before, purchased at a price of 9 000-9 500 rubles per ton. The demand in the previous week fell 1.6%.
According to the FCS, exports of grain in the current agricultural season as of July 9, 2020 amounted to 150 thousand tons, which is 67% lower than the 2019-2020 marketing year, when it was exported abroad almost 440 thousand tons of grain.
According to LLC "Zerno-trade" purchase price is for 10 July 2020 in the port of Novorossiysk on the basis of SRT of wheat of the 4th class with a protein of 12.5% amounted to 12 300 rubles per ton without VAT.
Export prices for cereals in the port of Novorossiysk from July 1, 2020 had the following values:
durum wheat 2 class loading for ship FOB = $ - / MT (unch) (protein 12.50-14%, gluten 28-32% nature - 840, humidity 10%, hardness 85);
soft wheat 2 class loading for ship FOB = $ 205 / MT (protein 13.50%, gluten 28%, nature - 790, humidity 12%);
soft wheat of class 3 with loading on the ship FOB = $ 198 / MT
(protein 12.50% gluten 25% nature - 750-770, humidity 14%);
soft wheat of class 4 with the loading on the ship FOB = $ 190 / MT(protein 11.50%, gluten 20-23% nature - 710-750, humidity 14%);
feed wheat class 5 loading to the ship FOB = $ - / MT (protein 10%, gluten 17-19% nature 710-740, humidity 14%);
feed wheat + oats with loading on the ship FOB = $ - / MT (protein 10% wheat, nature, 740 wheat + protein 12% oats, nature 560 oats, arnosti 3%);
corn food grade 1 with loading on the ship FOB = USD / MT (protein 10-12%, moisture 11-13% nature 750-780, arnosti 2%);
corn feed 2-3 class loading to the ship FOB = USD 200 / MT (protein 8-9.5%, moisture 13-14% nature 680-745, arnosti 2%);
barley 2 class loading for ship FOB = $ 185 / MT (protein 10-12% nature 620-640. moisture content 14%);
malting barley loading to the ship FOB = $ 210 / MT (protein 12% nature 620-640, humidity 12%, germination rate 95% min).
Increases the likelihood that export prices for wheat will not be reduced, depending on the harvesting conditions, they will either remain at current levels or go up. This forecast was voiced by the CEO of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
ICARUS has reduced the forecast of gross yield of wheat of 79.5 million tonnes to 78 million tonnes, the overall grain crop could reach 126 million tons, the Adjustment is associated with low rates in the South and heat in regions of the Volga region, said Rylko.
World wheat prices have recently demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. So, last week on the stock exchanges in Chicago and Paris wheat prices rose significantly, says Director of the analytical center "Sovekon" Andrei Sizov. This was due to the low estimate by the USDA of corn for the new crop — they decreased by 2 million hectares relative to the previous forecast. This factor led to higher prices for corn, which, as a substitute, pulled him up and wheat prices, said the expert.
"The cost of black sea wheat in June, the activity is reduced, however, we believe that this trend ends, at least for a while. Prices on the stock exchanges significantly increased, while the harvest in Russia worsen. And today, the black sea wheat on the exchange is more than $200," says Sizov. "Sovekon" also lowered its forecast for the wheat crop by 1.8 million tonnes to 80.9 million tonnes due to the low collection in the South.
Analytical center of "Rusagrotrans", on the contrary, increased the estimate of gross yield of 0.3 million tonnes to 124.4 million tons, including wheat — 0.7 million tonnes to 77.8 million tonnes. "the Outlook Revision is associated with the data at the end of the planting season, in accordance with which the area under wheat is 29 million hectares — was a record since 1982, when it was planted 30.8 million hectares, — said the head of the center Igor Pavensky. — At the same time increased the area under barley, corn, and reduced under other cereals". Pavensky said that the new data formed by raising assessments on the regions of Center and Volga region, South and North Caucasus districts forecast unchanged.
Analytical company "Prozerno" also recently raised its forecast for the crop with 128,1 million tonnes to 128,7 million tons "In most of the increase was due to the wheat now yield we estimated at 78.3 million tonnes, down from 77.4 million tonnes previously. But the yield of barley, oats, and buckwheat, we reduced to 20.3 million tons, 4.8 million tons and 0.82 million tons respectively — lists Petrichenko. —Forecast of the corn crop, we may not change it according to our estimates, will be collected 16,2 million tonnes, although some analysts estimates the potential harvest of more modestly."
However, the expert admits that the increase in forecast wheat was premature: the real harvest in the South — in the Stavropol, Krasnodar territories and the Rostov region greatly disappointing.
Egyptian state company GASC on 7 July announced the purchase of the tender 230 thousand tons of Russian wheat for delivery 8-18 August. Including purchased 110 thousand tons at a price of $204,8/t FOB plus $14 freight, and 120 thousand t in $of 205.6/t FOB plus $13.2 freight. Payment will be made through letter of credit on provision of shipping documents.
Last week the price of wheat with 12.5% protein fell to $196-195 per ton (FOB Novorossiysk), but by the end of the week returned to the level of $199/ton, continues Petrichenko. "This is due to the fact that prices of competitors to behave more cheerfully — they grew in all countries, except Ukraine, where the situation with the harvest is worse than we have in the South. Thus, U.S. wheat has risen to $210/MT FOB European to us $209/t FOB," leads data, adding that the estimate of the future price dynamics in connection with the situation in the southern regions of the country very difficult.
"We give a cautious forecast for the grain harvest in the new season 124-125 million tons, of which 79,5 million tons of wheat, says Director of the analytical Department of the Russian grain Union (RGU) Elena Tyurin. — On the one hand, in the South the crop is very low due to the heat, but in the Center and the Volga region, according to our estimates, the gross yield will be higher than in 2019, and it compensates for the fall in yields in the southern regions."
According to Tyurina, the market is now very sensitive to any information on gross yield: if the forecast is adjusted in a big way, prices are down, if down — on the contrary, increase. Average export price of wheat of the new crop of $197/ton, the domestic will start to decline.
Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of the analytical company "Prozerno", said:
"As for domestic prices, the new season includes only the southern regions, where the harvesting is behind last year's pace. In the South the decline in prices has already occurred, and in the Volga region and Chernozem region the transition from old prices to new starts only. In any case, domestic prices will decline in relation to the current, but in July they will definitely be higher than in the same period of 2019, despite the fact that overall harvest, we forecast higher than last year. The fact that now the dollar for 10 rubles. more than last summer. Besides, in dollars, the July average world price of wheat is higher than in July 2019, when it was $196 per ton."
The pace of grain exports at the beginning of the new agricultural year are likely to be lower than in season 2019/20, continues Andrei Sizov. First, exporters are carefully entered into contracts for the new crop in may-July, Contracting was much less active than last season because of expectations of a poor harvest in the South. Furthermore, exporters do not want to depend on farmers in the southern regions, as in the past agricultural year, when the implementation of the commitments on export contracts, traders were ready to buy grain from farmers at a high price just to close the deal and reduce penalties from the buyer, he says.
"As a result, in the first half of last season, many exporters have lost money. However, I believe that after August, when they will start housekeeping in the Volga region and Chernozem region, where the expected high yield, exports pick up," adds Sizov. He does not exclude that by the end of summer and autumn will even set new monthly records in terms of export.
Now the export of grain is slow, but the shipments gradually aktiviziruyutsya, says Dmitry Rylko. "The recovery we expect in late July — in August, when will the flow of grain from the Center and Volga region," he says. According to Tyurina, exports in July slightly higher than it was in June, when its volume amounted to 0.5 mln t including 0.3 mln tonnes of wheat — these are minimum figures for the season, which is associated with the sample quota. It is noteworthy that the market in June was only nine exporters versus 65 in the same month in 2019. On average, the usually monthly pack 40 grain exporters," she compares. RGU expects to increase the tempo of grain exports from July 15-20.